We size markets, but I wish more people sized problems

For investors, a size of a market indicates a potential opportunity for a high-risk embryo idea.

In this context, a market is usually defined by a geography, and an audience that is classified by a mix of demographics, behaviours, and needs.

But here’s my hot tip, there’s another way.

Rather than sizing markets in this way, size a market based on customer problems.

At the end of the day, we’re designing a product that aims to solve a customer problem - right?

In this context the size of your market is:

> the number of people who have a desired outcome "ie. Motivation to workout"

> their unmet need in achieving this "ie. Finding workouts that match my energy levels"

> (and if you want to get extra fancy) the amount they’re willing to pay to solve have this problem solved "ie. $10 per week"

This is how you do it:

> Jobs to be done interviews to work out the needs

> Survey to quantify the size of the unmet needs

> (Bonus points) Willingness to pay index to have the problem solved